Two teams in the AFC playoff chase face off in the 2nd of 2 Saturday games this weekend. The Broncos lead the all time series 23-5, and have won 11 straight dating back to 1991.
The Browns defeated the Panthers this past week 26-20. In week 12, they beat the Bengals 35-20, and lost 29-13 to the Texans.
After winning 3 straight, the Broncos dropped a 20-14 game to the 49ers. In week 12, they beat the Steelers 24-17, and beat the Bengals 24-10 in week 13.
Bovada has the Broncos as 3 point favourites with an O/U of 45.5.
The Browns may not be ready to compete yet, but they are definitely a team trending upward with Baker Mayfield at the helm. Mayfield has thrown for 2877 yards, 19 TDs, and 10 INTs on the year while completing 64.4% of his passes and averaging 7.7 YPA. Jarvis Landry has his limitations, but has been very good for the Browns as the lead receiver, hauling in 69 catches for 790 yards and 3 TDs. David Njoku (47/474/3) and Antonio Callaway (34/472/3) both struggle with drops (8 and 6 respectively) but are good in supporting roles while Duke Johnson has 347 yards and 3 TDs on 36 catches out of the backfield. Nick Chubb has really impressed since taking over the lead back role, rushing 144 times for 760 yards and 8 TDs.
The Browns rank below average in scoring defense, allowing 25.5 PPG. Their pass defense ranks 2nd to last in passing defense, allowing 277.9 yards per game and 19 TDs through the air, while their pass rush ranks below average with 30 sacks. The Browns run D is near the bottom of the league, allowing 133.3 yards per game and 17 rushing TDs. Cleveland has forced 28 turnovers on the year, and owns a +9 turnover differential.
CB Denzel Ward (concussion) – questionable
G Austin Corbett (foot) – questionable
CB Phillip Gaines (knee) – questionable
The Broncos have been their own worst enemy with their inconsistency. Case Keenum has thrown for 3139 yards, 15 TDs, and 10 INTs while completing 61.8% of his passes and averaging 6.9 YPA. His top targets, Demaryius Thomas (trade) and Emmanuel Sanders (injury) are now gone, so the Broncos are working with a lot of youth and raw talent at the receiver position. Courtland Sutton shows the most promise, catching 30 balls for 572 yards and 3 TDs on the year, while Daesean Hamilton (12/108/1) and Tim Patrick (11/158/1) have assumed the #2 and 3 receiving positions. Philip Lindsay has been a real diamond in the rough as a UDFA signing, rushing for 967 yards and 8 TDs on 168 carries, while Royce Freeman has rushed 102 times for 433 yards and 5 TDs.
The Broncos scoring defense ranks inside the top 10, allowing 21.7 PPG. Their pass defense ranks near the bottom of the league, allowing 264.2 yards per game and 23 TDs through the air, while their pass rush ranks in the top 5 with 40 sacks. Their run defense is below average, allowing 119.2 yards per game and 8 TDs. The Broncos have forced 22 turnovers, and own a +9 turnover differential.
LB Brandon Marshall (knee) – questionable
CB Chris Harris Jr. (leg) – doubtful
WR Emmanuel Sanders (Achilles) – out
Baker Mayfield has really turned this Browns offense into a fun watch. They have turned into a balanced attack capable of attacking defenses all over the field. This week will be dependent on the gameplan around the Broncos potent pass rush. If they can neutralize Bradley Chubb and Von Miller, the Browns should move the ball through the air against a secondary that lacks playmaking ability without Chris Harris Jr. The Broncos have shown their susceptibility to the run this season, and this should be a nice spot for Nick Chubb to continue his success of late.
The Broncos offense is now solely reliant on the run game and the right arm of Case Keenum due to the lack of separation they offer in the receiving game. The Browns coverage has not been great this season, but they are great at forcing turnovers, which may not bode well against a gunslinger in Case Keenum. The run game will keep them in the game, but if this turns in to a shootout, take comfort in the Browns offense trending upward.
Final Pick: Browns (+3)
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