Two blue bloods go at it Sunday as the Steelers and Saints fight for playoff seeding within their respective conferences. The Saints lead the all time series 8-7, and have won 2 of the last 3 dating back to 2006
The Steelers bounced back after a 3 game losing streak with a 17-10 win over the Patriots. In week 13, they lost 33-30 to the Chargers and lost 24-21 to the Raiders in week 14.
The Saints aren’t dominating teams like they were over their 10 game win streak, but grinded out a 12-9 win over Carolina last week. In week 13, they lost 13-10 to the Cowboys and beat the Buccaneers 28-14 in week 14.
BetOnline have the Saints as 6 point favourites with an O/U total of 53.5.
The Steelers overcame the Patriots for the first time in several years in arguably their most important win of the season. Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for 4462 yards, 30 TDs, and 15 INTs while completing 66.9% of his passes and averaging 7.7 YPA. The duo of Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster continues to be dynamic. Brown has caught 90 balls for 1112 yards and 13 TDs while JuJu has caught 95 balls for 1274 yards and 6 TDs. Vance McDonald has also come on with 46 catches for 522 yards and 4 TDs. James Conner should be back this week, and has rushed for 910 yards and 12 TDs on 202 carries while Jaylen Samuels has done well in his stead with 201 yards on 42 carries.
The Steelers scoring defense is ranked middle of the pack, allowing 22.7 PPG. Their pass defense ranks above average, allowing 236.6 yards per game and 26 TDs through the air while their pass rush ranks in the top 3 with 46 sacks. Their run defense ranks just outside the top 5, allowing 96.9 yards per game and 10 TDs on the ground. The Steelers have forced just 14 turnovers, and own a -9 turnover differential.
RB James Conner (ankle) – questionable
OT Marcus Gilbert (knee) – placed on IR
Drew Brees continues to be efficient and effective, and the Saints continue to roll even though it may not be in dominant fashion. Brees has thrown for 3666 yards, 31 TDs, and 5 INTs while completing 74.9% of his passes and averaging 8.1 YPA. Michael Thomas continues to be the #1 receiver by a mile, catching 109 balls for 1267 yards and 8 TDs, while Alvin Kamara is heavily featured as well with 77 catches for 627 yards and 4 TDs. On the ground, Kamara leads the way with 860 yards and 12 TDs on 187 carries while Mark Ingram contributes heavily as well with 122 carries for 582 yards and 5 TDs.
The Saints scoring defense is ranked in the top 10, allowing 20.9 PPG. The Saints pass defense is ranked near the bottom of the league, allowing 262.5 yards per game and 25 TDs through the air, while their pass rush ranks in the top 5 with 42 sacks. Their run defense is ranked 1st, allowing 79.1 yards per game and 10 TDs on the ground. The Saints defense has forced 22 turnovers, and they own a +8 turnover differential.
OT Teron Armstead (chest) – questionable
C Max Unger (concussion) – questionable
OT Jermon Bushrod (hamstring) – questionable
The Steelers offense did not necessarily fly off the handle last week against the Pats, but hit some big plays when they needed to. Turnovers are going to be the key here, and if they can stay ahead of schedule and avoid turnover worthy plays they will be in position to strike. The Panthers showed success in utilizing Christian McCaffrey in the pass game, and the Steelers could find similar success with Jaylen Samuels or James Conner if he plays. On the outside, the Steelers should find plenty of favorable matchups with either AB or JuJu.
The Saints offense has not been as effective lately, and is banged up on the offensive line. The Steelers have the defensive line capable of wreaking havoc, especially up the interior, which is not ideal for Drew Brees. They also showed some situational awareness last week by doubling Gronk and Josh Gordon in key situations, a strategy that could be very effective on Michael Thomas if they are worried about their corners on an island with him. The Saints have not been playing like they will win games by multiple scores, especially against a team as talented as the Steelers, who are also playing with a bit of desperation.
Final Pick: Steelers (+6)
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